Allowing for within-subpopulation inbreeding in forensic match probabilities

K.L. Ayres, Andrew Overall

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The importance of allowing for recent shared ancestry when calculating forensic match probabilities has been recognised for some time. Within-subpopulation inbreeding will also affect the match probability, and ignoring these effects can lead to an overstatement of the strength of the DNA evidence against a defendant. However, inbreeding can be readily accounted for in match probabilities by incorporating the inbreeding coefficient F into calculations. We derive the IS necessary formulae, and demonstrate the effect of including F (in addition to F ) in the IS ST equations.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)207-216
Number of pages10
JournalForensic Science International
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 9 Sept 1999


  • DNA profiling
  • F-ST
  • F-IS
  • inbreeding coefficient
  • forensic identification
  • population genetics


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