Who will redislocate his/her shoulder? Predicting recurrent instability following a first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation

M. Olds, R. Ellis, P. Parmar, Paula Kersten

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


    Objective To develop a multivariate tool that would predict recurrent instability after a first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation. Methods Participants (aged 16-40 years) were recruited across New Zealand into a prospective cohort study. Baseline data were collected during a telephone interview and through examination of radiology records. Variables associated with recurrent instability were selected for the multivariate logistic regression model using backwards selection (p<0.10). Coefficients for those variables retained in the model were used to develop the predictive tool. Results Among the 128 participants, 36% had redislocated at least once in the first 12 months. Univariate analysis showed an increased likelihood of recurrent dislocation with bony Bankart lesions (OR=3.65, 95% CI 1.05 to 12.70, p=0.04) and participants who had: not been immobilised in a sling (OR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.98, p=0.05), higher levels of shoulder activity (OR=1.13, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.27, p=0.03), higher levels of pain and disability (OR=1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.06, p=0.02), higher levels of fear of reinjury (OR=1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.26, p=0.04) and decreased quality of life (OR=1.01, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.02, p=0.05). There was no significant difference in those with non-dominant compared with dominant shoulder dislocations (p=0.10) or in those aged 16-25 years compared with 26-40 years (p=0.07). Conclusion Six of seven physical and psychosocial factors can be used to predict recurrent shoulder instability following a first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation.

    Original languageEnglish
    Article numbere000447
    JournalBMJ Open Sport & Exercise Medicine
    Issue number1
    Publication statusPublished - 7 Mar 2019

    Bibliographical note

    © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.
    This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.


    • Shoulder dislocation
    • prospective study
    • fear
    • recurrence
    • Pain
    • pain
    • shoulder dislocation


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