Modelling personal exposure to particulate air pollution: An assessment of time-integrated activity modelling, Monte Carlo simulation & artificial neural network approaches

An experimental assessment of personal exposure to PM10 in 59 office workers was carried out in Dublin, Ireland. 255 samples of 24-h personal exposure were collected in real time over a 28 month period. A series of modelling techniques were subsequently assessed for their ability to predict 24-h personal exposure to PM10. Artificial neural network modelling, Monte Carlo simulation and time–activity based models were developed and compared. The results of the investigation showed that using the Monte Carlo technique to randomly select concentrations from statistical distributions of exposure concentrations in typical microenvironments encountered by office workers produced the most accurate results, based on 3 statistical measures of model performance. The Monte Carlo simulation technique was also shown to have the greatest potential utility over the other techniques, in terms of predicting personal exposure without the need for further monitoring data. Over the 28 month period only a very weak correlation was found between background air quality and personal exposure measurements, highlighting the need for accurate models of personal exposure in epidemiological studies.