The future orientation of disengaged care leavers in northwest England

Abstract

In England, 92,980 care leavers navigate an age-based safeguarding system that can end in a ‘care cliff’, an abrupt withdrawal of services. One-third are classified as not in education, employment, or training (NEET). This study explores future orientation, the capacity to manage the present and pursue aspirations, by examining the hopes, fears, motivational sources, and behavioural hurdles of seven NEET care leavers residing in a Blackpool hostel (July–November 2022).
Single-case Q-methodology was used to examine cognitive, motivational, and behavioural expressions of future orientation. Each participant selected a Q-sample of 30 autobiographical units from their individual concourse of hopes, fears and motivations. The 30 units were then ranked across four temporal anchors (present, ideal, 5- and 10-year), together with 16 self-selected perspective-takers, on a –4 (‘least like me’) to +4 (‘most like me’) grid. Data were analysed using principal component analysis to extract and interpret Q-sort variance structures.
Analysis revealed four variance statuses, reflecting differences in participants’ executive coherence and how accurately perspective-takers represented their biographies. Factor structures served as developmental indicators. Hopes were future-oriented, instrumental, and self-agentic but constrained by burdens such as welfare dependency. Fears were present-oriented, relational, and saturated by loneliness. Motivation sources were least prominent, short-term, and focused on escaping the hostel. Behaviourally, participants exhibited future-oriented anxieties while deprioritising self-esteem. Their psychological adjustment reflected a reactive secondary control orientation, prioritising survival over instrumental aspirations. These initial findings stress the need to refine research questions for future waves of this study.
Four layers, existential hopes, relational fears, present-oriented motivation, and future-oriented anxiety, expose the psychological and ecological factors that heighten care cliff risk. A data-driven visualisation, derived from sample data, illustrates how systemic pressures, such as loneliness, overwhelm self-agentic 2 aspirations. The care cliff reflected not just service withdrawal but inadequate safeguarding that left participants unprepared for life outside the system.
The future orientation of this sample was partial, limited in scope and lacking behavioural follow-through. Their dysfunctional environment hindered both exploration and commitment to aspirations. Without this research, these care leavers would likely have remained unheard. Preventing such outcomes requires equipping young people with the emotional scaffolding and developmental supports needed to turn aspirations into action.

Date of Award	Jan 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	University of Brighton
Supervisor	Jorg Huber (Supervisor), Buket Kara (Supervisor) & Suna Eryigit-Madzwamuse (Supervisor)