Predicting Recurrent Instability of the Shoulder (PRIS): A valid tool to predict which patients will not have repeat shoulder instability after first-time traumatic anterior dislocation

M. Olds, R. Ellis, Paula Kersten

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Objective: To assess the sensitivity, specificity, and validity of the Predicting Recurrent Instability of the Shoulder (PRIS) tool in people with a first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation.
Design: Prospective cohort study.
Methods: People with first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation (n = 85), aged 16 to 40 years, were recruited within 12 weeks of their shoulder dislocation and followed prospectively for 1 year post injury. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value of the PRIS tool.
Results: Of the 75 participants available for 1-year follow-up, 57 (76%) did not have recurrent shoulder instability. With the PRIS tool cut point set at 0.895, the tool's sensitivity was 39% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.3%, 64.3%) and its specificity was 95% (95% CI: 85.4%, 98.9%). The area under the curve was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.84; P = .01). The PRIS tool correctly identified 54 of the 57 (95%) who did not have recurrent instability (accuracy, 81%; 95% CI: 70.7%, 89.4%). Negative and positive predictive values were 83% (95% CI: 77.2%, 87.7%) and 70% (95% CI: 40.2%, 89.0%), respectively.
Conclusion: The PRIS tool can predict those who will not have further shoulder instability in the year following first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation. The PRIS tool cannot accurately predict those who will have recurrent shoulder instability.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)431-437
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Orthopaedic & Sports Physical Therapy
Volume50
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 31 Jul 2020

Keywords

  • Prognostic research
  • recurrent shoulder instability
  • Validation
  • Recurrent shoulder instability
  • Prognostic

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