Machine Learning Model for Predicting Long-Term Energy Consumption in Buildings

The rapid growth in the construction sector has led to increased energy consumption and carbon emissions. Calculating energy usage and emissions is essential to energy security and promoting sustainable sector development. Therefore, the study objective is to investigate the utilazation of machine learning algorithm to predict long-term energy consumption in buildings sector, aiming to improve sustainable design and energy optimization, via the implementation of three machine learning models, XGBoost, Support Vector Regression, and Long-Short-Term Memory networks, to predict energy consumption. These models are adept at capturing complex interactions between building characteristics, environmental factors, and energy patterns. Although previous studies have explored various machine learning techniques for energy efficiency, limited research links these models to practical applications in building performance simulation.

Furthermore, there is a lack of comparative evaluation of advanced machine learning models such as XGBoost, Support Vector Regression, and Long-Short-Term Memory to predict the energy consumption of building envelopes, particularly in hot climates such as the UAE. This research aims to fill this gap by providing a detailed comparison of these models against alternative approaches mentioned in the literature. The findings position Long-Short-Term Memory as a transformative force in predictive modeling, demonstrating exceptional precision with an R-squared value of 0.993 and a Mean Squared Error of 0.004. In contrast, Support Vector Regression and XGBoost showed limited predictive capabilities, with R-squared values of 0.462 and 0.94, respectively. This study establishes a solid data-driven foundation for architects and engineers to inform decisions on energy-efficient building designs, advocating Long-Short-Term Memory as the superior model for predicting energy performance.