Changes, Continuities and Contexts: Evaluating the policing of VAWG in the NTE

Assessing the effectiveness of any crimereduction initiative is not without its challenges. These challenges flow from,for example, the complexity inherent in the different activities usuallycomprising an initiative; activities based on different theories about ‘whatworks’ in different contexts; theories which may be complementary, intersecting,and even, at times, contradictory. In this paper, we reflect on such challengeswith respect to our recent experiences evaluating a police-led initiative knownas Project Vigilant.  ProjectVigilant, pioneered by Thames Valley police, attempts to tackle sexual violencein the night-time economy. Central to this initiative is the deployment ofpaired teams of uniformed and plain-clothed police officers, specially trainedin behavioural detection techniques, who patrol designated areas, such as outside barsand clubs, between specific times on nights identified as presenting thehighest risk. Officers identify individuals displaying predatorybehaviour such as sexual harassment, inappropriate touching, and loitering, andintervene to disrupt their behaviour, and, in theory, prevent an offenceoccurring. At first glance, an evaluation capturing the effectiveness of thisinitiative is a straightforward exercise. As Rumney & McPhee (2021) observein relation to Vigilant, questions may include, have officers identified repeatoffenders? What intelligence already existed pertaining to those arrested? Hasthere been a fall in recorded offences, if so, what other factors might be influencingthis decline? Delving a little deeper into the nature of this initiative, seeking,perhaps, to develop a ‘theory of change’, then a much more complex scenarioemerges. Furthermore, rolling an implementation programme out across severalpolice forces raises important contextual questions – are they, indeed, all dothe same thing?  We consider these issues,alongside a broader reflection on what does or should constitute evidence whenassessing effectiveness in relation to violence against women and girls,generally, and more specifically, sexual violence in the night-time economy.